Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so close to being a tossup, Florida would likely be preferred if the Panthers had home-ice benefit.


But that edge belongs to Edmonton, which mostly discusses why the Oilers are slight favorites to win the series, which begins Wednesday.


"However you desire to take a look at this pie, you might make an argument that either team could be preferred," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve stated. "Home ice is absolutely playing a part. You're simply playing the portions. The team that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win approximately 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook notes the Oilers as -130 favorites to 1 and take that essential 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 favorite to end up being the first Canadian team since Montreal in 1993 to raise the Stanley Cup.


Defending champ Florida, which beat Edmonton in 7 video games last year, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading supervisor Christian Cipollini said about 55% of the money has actually been available in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) speaks to media throughout a press conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)


"I would expect that to probably continue," Cipollini said. "I think we'll most likely take a little bit more Oilers money even if of Connor McDavid, but this is a rematch. Florida won last year, so I believe we will wind up getting an even projection."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, doesn't buy the Oilers must be favored.


"You do not see rematches too often in the Cup Final," Smith stated. "When you do, you always ask yourself the obvious question: Are these 2 groups better or even worse than they were in 2015? I 'd say Florida is a better variation of themselves from in 2015. Edmonton (is) somewhat even worse than last year, especially when you take a look at no Zach Hyman available for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, however how healthy is he going to be?


"I provide the edges to Florida based off of they have actually been playing much better, sound defense. I think they're a tighter team than they were in 2015."


Edmonton's captain ended up being the 2nd skater and sixth player to be granted the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while playing on the losing team.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of teammate Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 preferred at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, providing him a possibility to make even more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they really going to provide McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the preferred since of the points scored and there's already a precedent that they could give it to him here, however that's something to watch as the video games start. If there is a Florida gamer that isn't truly standing out ... there is a genuine world where it could be him again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has long been viewed as a weakness on the lineup, a credibility that seemed sealed when he was benched two games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a significant factor Edmonton is still playing. He has actually allowed one or absolutely no goals in 5 of his previous 7 starts, 3 of them shutouts.


Another terrific run in the web could put Skinner, listed +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have informed you this was sustainable before," Smith said of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it definitely is sustainable."


Florida is making its 3rd successive appearance in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which fatigue might finally catch up to the Panthers. Or they might just be on a heating system having actually won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve stated the metrics indicate a Panthers champion and though either outcome would be great with Caesars, a Florida victory would be much better.


"I don ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve stated. "In 2015 was a bit harder since more individuals liked Florida, however individuals are everything about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series obviously could go in any case and Oklahoma City is heavily preferred over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that could increase wagering interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I believe it assists the NBA is getting the less sexier match," Shreeve stated. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things remain tight, it has a possibility to go 6 or 7 video games, which would help."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) participate in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov raises the Stanley Cup after beating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press via AP, File)