DraftKings Eyeing Prediction Betting Opportunities Ahead Of Next Election

Online sports betting business may not let another cycle of governmental election campaigning and betting pass them by without taking a few of that action themselves.


The huge quantity of betting on this year's election was undoubtedly difficult to miss out on - and DraftKings Inc. now plans on taking a long look to see if there are chances for itself in the forecast market service.


That is at least what DraftKings CEO Jason Robins said throughout the Boston-based company's Friday early morning conference call for analysts and financiers.


One analyst asked Robins for his ideas on "non-sports betting forecast markets" and whether there is a chance there for DraftKings.


"I believe it's an extremely intriguing thing," Robins responded. "The marketplace within that that's dominant is election markets, obviously, and particularly throughout governmental elections. So I know there's a great deal of stress on it over the last few weeks. I do think there could be a location for it outside of elections, but that's really where the interest seems to be now from a ... client demand side. So, definitely something we're taking a look at in advance of the next presidential election, and potentially it'll be a chance to take a look at something earlier."


RFK Jr.'s odds of a Cabinet election continue to fall


82% yesterday, now 68% pic.twitter.com/ON61pv3Cqh


Robins included that it is a "various structure" for prediction markets, which provide wagerers the opportunity to bet on U.S. election chances, to name a few things.


Most notably, Kalshi, Robinhood, and others are controlled by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, not state video gaming guard dogs.


"It's not certified as a betting product, it's accredited as a monetary market," Robins stated. "It's absolutely a very different thing. So we'll have to see where it fits in the top priority list, however it is something we'll intend on taking a look at ahead of next election for sure."


There was big interest in banking on the 2024 governmental election, to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars staked at entities like Kalshi in the U.S. and Polymarket and Betfair abroad.


The comments from the CEO of one of the greatest business in the U.S. suggest sports betting and internet gambling establishment gambling operators have an interest in claiming some of that company for themselves.


That has the potential to shake up the prediction market industry ahead of the next governmental election, and possibly even before. DraftKings, FanDuel, and other online betting business already have big databases of wagerers, and could quickly steal market share from incumbents.


However, as Robins noted, forecast markets are controlled in a different way, so DraftKings or other brand-new entrants would have work to do before they could launch their own variations. His comments also suggest that DraftKings does not expect states to loosen up their rules around election wagering anytime soon.


Yes we might


Prediction markets provide contracts for particular results that gamblers can acquire, such as "yes" that one candidate will win an election. Bettors can buy and sell these agreements up until they are settled, as the prices vary based upon trading activity and the news.


For example, somebody could have bought a "yes" agreement for Donald Trump to win Tuesday's election for 60 cents. If they are still holding it, they stand to make a profit of 40 cents, as the settlement value of the agreements is typically $1.


This is different from sports wagering, where users bet on point spreads, moneylines, and overalls. DraftKings took sports betting-style wagers on the U.S. election in the Canadian province of Ontario but was barred by state rules and regulations from doing the exact same in the U.S.


. That stated, many sports gamblers were most likely wagering on the 2024 election via Kalshi and other prediction markets. They could be quick to adopt a DraftKings-branded version.


A DraftKings prediction market would also harmonize the company's technique of trying to guarantee its consumers don't do not have online gaming options.


The Boston-based bookie offers sports betting, online casino gaming, horse-race wagering, and, via its current purchase of Jackpocket Inc., lottery game tickets.


DraftKings says it "experienced the most customer-friendly stretch of NFL sport results we have actually ever seen early in the 4th quarter." pic.twitter.com/o70EkJRGde


The prediction-market service might assist DraftKings and others smooth over the volatility of online sports wagering too, which originates from the truth that in some cases clients can win and win a lot.


That volatility was on full display in third-quarter financial results reported by DraftKings on Thursday, as the company said "client friendly" NFL outcomes in October and November have currently required it to revise its monetary projection for 2024.


DraftKings is now guiding for income of between $4.85 billion and $4.95 billion this year, and adjusted EBITDA of $240 million to $280 million. The tough run of NFL results helped minimize the profits price quote by $250 million and the changed EBITDA projection by $120 million, the business stated.